Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down. CN is down. WN is. KWN is up. MWN is up. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch and waiting for this weeks US Producer Price Index and Consumer price index. Gold is lower. US interest rates higher and longer is offering resistance to Gold futures.
SN is near 12.16. Funds covered more shorts than expected, increase soymeal long and remain short soyoil. USDA est US 2024 soybean crop near 4,450 mil bu vs 4,165 ly. USDA est US left 2023/24 carryout at 340 mil bu and estimated US 2024/25 carryout at 445 mil bu. One group is closer to 500. USDA est US 2024/25 crush at record 2,425 mil bu vs 2,300 this year, USDA est US 2024/25 soybean exports at 1,825 mil bi vs 1,700 this year, One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop near 147 mmt vs USDA 154. Some feel funds could increase buying and add to supply risk into SN 13.00 gap.
CN is near 4.68. Funds covered more shorts than expected. US corn planting is est near 50 pct. USDA est US 2023/24 carryout at 2,022 mil bu vs April est of 2,122 and estimated US 2024/25 carryout at 2,102 mil bu. USDA est US 2024/25 ethanol use at 5,450 mil bu vs 5,450 this year, USDA est US 2024/25 feed and residual at 5,750 vs 5,700 this year. USDA est US 2024/25 corn exports at 2.200 mil bu vs 2,150 this year. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. They est Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt vs USDA 55. Some feel funds could increase buying and add to supply risk to 5.40 CN.
WN is near 6.69 on World supply worries. Matif wheat futures have rallied to $260. USDA estimated US 2024/25 carryout at 766 mil bu due to higher crop. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,858 mil bu vs 1,812 ly. Winter wheat 1,278 vs trade est of 1,311. USDA est World 2024/25 world 253.6 mmt vs 257.3, WN made new highs for the move on Friday. Frost and dryness in Russia and wet weather in E EU helped trigger new fund short covering.
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