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FOMC Likely to Cut Rates in Sept


New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said he does not see the need for a rate cut in the near term.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Michael Barr at 9:00, Thomas Barkin at 9:00, Patrick Harker at 9:30, Loretta Mester at 11:00 and Raphael Bostic at 2:50 PM.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 70% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.

The fundamentals and technicals have improved for futures, especially at the long end of the yield curve.


Housing starts in April were 1.360 million when 1.435 million were expected, and building permits were 1.440 million when 1.480 million were anticipated.

Jobless claims in the week ended May 11 were 222,000 when 220,000 were predicted.

The May Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was 4.5 when 7.8 was forecast.

Import prices in April increase 0.9% when up 0.2% was expected, and export prices were up 0.5% when a gain of 0.2% was anticipated.

Industrial production in April was unchanged when a 0.1% increase was expected, and capacity utilization was 78.4% as anticipated.

The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive.


The U.S. dollar index is a little higher.

The Japanese yen is lower on news that Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024. Gross domestic product shrank 0.5% quarter-to-quarter in the first quarter, which compares to market estimates of a 0.4% decline.

The total number of employed people in Australia increased by 38,500 in April, which was much higher than expectations of 22,400 people. However, Australia’s unemployment rate increased more than anticipated to 4.1% in April from 3.8% in March.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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