Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower.
The 8:45 central time November S&P global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.6.
The 9:00 November Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated be 47.5.
The 9:00 October construction spending report is predicted to show a 0.3% increase.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 10:00 and also at 1:00 PM at a roundtable discussion.
Powell’s comments will probably be neutral to slightly hawkish on balance.
The technical aspects have become much more supportive to stock index futures since late October.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The HCOB euro zone manufacturing PMI in November was 44.2, which compares to the predicted 43.8.
The final reading of the S&P Global/CIPS U.K. manufacturing PMI improved for a third month in a row to 47.2 in November from 44.8 in October. The reading was also up from a preliminary November estimate of 46.7.
The Nationwide House Price Index in the U.K. fell 2.0% year-on-year in November 2023, for a tenth consecutive decline, and compared to forecasts of a 2.3% drop. This is the least decline in house prices since February.
The Swiss economy expanded 0.3% on the quarter in the third quarter, beating forecasts of a 0.1% gain.
The unemployment rate in Japan in October was 2.5% when 2.6% was expected.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There is a growing consensus among analysts that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hiking cycle.
Other Federal Reserve speakers today are Austan Goolsbee at 9:00 and Lisa Cook at 1:00.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting.
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