Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was higher early Tuesday and was pushing up against the April 7 high. Reports that President Trump was unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war made the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz more elusive, creating expectations for a long term disruption of supply that would seem to leave the May 9 high in crude oil in jeopardy. Even if the Strait were to officially open tomorrow, it could take weeks to sweep mines and months to restore port facilities to where they were before the way. The market remains volatile and vulnerable to sudden changes of mood off on again/off again talks of peace.
PRODUCTS
June RBOB reached another new contract high early Tuesday, but in some regards it is playing catchup with the diesel market after diesel prices went to a 3 ½ year premium to gasoline in March.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas was near unchanged early Tuesday after bouncing off 18-month lows on Friday. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 maps show below normal temperatures over the eastern half to two-thirds of the lower 48 states, which his nominally supportive, but it is getting late in the season for cold temperatures to make much difference in US consumption. Above normal temps are expected in the PNW and much of the west.
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