Except For Wheat Lower Trade Across Ag Space

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Except for wheat, lower to sharply lower trade across the Ag space to begin the week.  Energy prices have pulled back while speculators lighten up on their record long holdings in the soybean complex.  Friday’s CFTC-COT data confirmed huge speculative buying by both MM’s and index funds.  While the Straits of  Hormuz remains closed, Pres. Trump has called on other nations to form a coalition with the US to help safeguard vessels thru the narrow passage.  The Administration suggests US military will soon escort ships through the Straits.  Pres. Trump has even threatened to postpone his summit with Chinese leader Xi, tentatively scheduled to begin Mch 31^st, unless China plays a more active role in reopening the passage.  Spot crude oil is down $1.50 near $97.25 in 2 sided trade.  RBOB futures are steady while heating oil is down $.03. Over the weekend rains missed dry areas in SE Argentina however widespread rains are expected the early half of this week. Rains in Brazil continue to favor central and northern growing areas while the South remains too dry.  A major winter storm across the northern Midwest brought heavy snow and powerful winds thru the region.  Lows in the Central plains early this week will dip into the mid-teens.  Dry across the nation’s midsection this week once the current system pushed thru.  By the end of the week above normal temperatures across the plains and WCB while normal in the east.  The US $$ is moderately lower while holding within Friday’s range.  US stock indices are higher.

Corn: 

May-26 is down $.05 near $4.62 while Dec-26 is down $.03 at $4.85 ½, both holding within Friday’s range.  MM’s were net buyers for a 8th consecutive week adding nearly 231k contracts extending their net long position to 780k contracts, the largest since May-22.  MM’s bought just over 140k contracts of corn, the most in a week since May-19, extending their long position to 193K contracts.  The producer/merchant short position surged by nearly 144k contracts, also the most in a week since May-19, an indication of large farmer selling.  IMEA reports 2^nd crop seedings in Mato Grosso are virtually complete at over 99%.

Soybeans:

May-26 beans are down $.33 near $11.92 while Nov-26 is off $.11 ½ at $11.50.  May-26 meal is down $7 at $315.70 with May-26 oil off $.01 near 66.40.   MM’s bought just over 75k contracts across the soybean complex extending their combined long position to a record large  411,606 contracts.  Index funds are holding a record long position in soybeans at just over 219k contracts.  No major headlines coming from US Treasury Sec. Bessent and USTR Greer’s talks with Chinese trade officials in Paris over the weekend.  Wire services reports talked centered on China’s purchase of US Ag. goods, US export controls on high tech goods, China’s rare earth metals and US tariffs.  IMEA reports soybean harvest in Mato Grosso has reached 96%.  NOPA crush later this AM is expected to show members processed nearly 203 mil. bu. in Feb-26, down from 221.6 mil. in Jan-26 however well above the 177.9 mil. in Feb-25.  Oil stocks are expected at 1.93 bil. lbs. just above the 1.90 in Jan-26 however well above the 1.5 bil. YA.

Wheat:

Prices range from down $.05 in CGO to $.03 better in KC.  CGO May-26 is down $.05 near $6.09 while KC May-26 is up $.02 ½ at $6.32, both holding within Friday’s range.  Wild temperature swings and growing drought in the SW plains is leading to an injection of weather premium.  Over the weekend Russia’s Ag. Ministry raised their export tax from zero to 135.4 roubles/mt for the period ending Mch. 24^th.  The combined MM position in wheat is net long across the 3 classes for the first time Oct-22.

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