Written Commentary
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas was down for the third straight session early Wednesday, as the weather forecast continues to moderate, but after a 17% decline of 0.941 in just four sessions, the market may be due for a bounce. EU countries’ ambassadors on Wednesday greenlit the bloc’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, with Russian LNG imports ending by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by the end of September 2027. This is not a surprise, as this is one more step in a process has several. The bill still requires passage in the EU Parliament, which is expected to be voted on next week, and formal approval at a meeting of EU countries’ ministers early next year.
PRODUCTS
January RBOB has broken below the November 25 low, reestablishing the downtrend from the November 11 high.
CRUDE OIL
February Crude Oil edged lower early Wednesday. The market may be drawing some support from lowered expectations for a peace deal in Ukraine, but it still faces the prospects of oversupply next year. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said today (Wednesday) that it would redirect some oil from the Kashagan oil field to China after a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal at the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Sources told Reuters this week that Kazakhstan plans to supply 50,000 metric tons to China. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country and its European partners will soon present the US with “refined documents” on a peace plan to end the war with Russia.
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