Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 13.13. SMZ is near 422.5. BOZ is near 53.60. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.07. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.97. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 6.81. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.41. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher and near $90. Increase Middle East tension could push Crude even higher next week. More talking $100 Crude. Gold is higher.
Soybean futures are slightly lower. North Brazil forecast is dry. Continued dry Brazil weather could push SX above 13.20. Argentina forecast adds needed rains. SMZ-SMH spread moved up to +10.00. Talk of higher demand for US soymeal exports has rallied SMZ $32 dollars this week. US soymeal export commit is near 5.0 mmt vs 3.6 ly. SMZ is overbought. Tech selling has dropped BOZ to 4 month low. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower.
Corn futures are higher. Unconfirmed rumors of China interest in US PNW corn pushed CZ over 5.00. Key resistance is still near 5.10-5.20. US corn export commit is up 17 pct from ly with USDA looking for a 12 pct increase. Increase difficult logistics in Brazil create some short term window of opportunity for improvement in US export demand. Managed funds remain short 101,000 corn contracts. Dry Brazil and higher US exports could push CZ above 5.10.
Wheat futures are higher. There are unconfirmed rumors of China interest in US SRW wheat. Combined Argentina and Australia crops could be down 8 mmt vs ly. Russia continues to offer wheat for export at below $230 without buyers. Managed funds remain short 100,000 Chicago wheat contracts. Additional short covering could push WZ over 6.00, KWZ closer to 7.00 and MWZ over 7.50.
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