Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 8 cents sand near 14.01. SMZ is near 417.0. BOZ is near 72.87. CZ is up 1 cent and near 6.87. WZ is up 5 cents and near 8.40. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 9.38. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 9.54.
Soybean futures are higher. The lower Dollar could be lifting most commodities especially soybeans. Argentina is still dry. Jan soybean board crush margins are near record high. Cash is even higher. This supports soybean futures. There may be some tech buying with higher Crude and Nat Gas helping the GSI commodity index. Poor US river logistics offers resistance to futures. Dalian soybean prices are lower. Soymeal and soyoil prices were higher This is helping already elevated China crush margins. Palmoil continues to trade higher.
Corn futures are higher. US domestic corn demand is strong but US corn exports are down 21 pct. Brazil export prices are lower and the spread between cheaper Brazil vs US suggest Brazil corn could be imported into US. There are no Ukraine export price due to talk that Russia may not extend Ukraine export corridor deal. Nov 22 is deadline for the deal. Russia warns that Ukraine could use a dirty bomb. Is this setting up Russia to use one? China Dalian corn is higher. US export prices are just $19/mt below Dalian corn vs $150 below last year
Wheat futures are higher. OK could see rains but most of US HRW crop areas are dry. While interest in World buyers tendering for wheat is up, US wheat prices remain a steep premium to especially Russia prices. Status of Ukraine export corridor is key with managed funds short Chicago wheat futures. Wheat price discovery remains tricky and volatile.
US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Some tech stocks missed trade earnings estimates. Crude, gold, silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are higher. Coffee and sugar are lower. Lower Dollar is helping metals and maybe grains.
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