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Dollar Higher Following Triple Top


The U.S. dollar index is higher taking out a triple top on the daily chart.

dollar bills

The long term trend for the U.S. dollar is higher as Federal Reserve officials have become even more hawkish in their rhetoric recently.

As a result, interest rate differential expectations have turned more bullish for the greenback.

The British pound continued to decline to below $1.14, which is the lowest level since 1985.

Retail sales in the U.K. fell 1.6% month-over-month in August of 2022, which is the biggest decline  this year, and worse than forecasts of a 0.5% drop.

The Bank of England may hike the main rate by 75 basis points at its policy meeting on September 22.

The Japanese yen remains near a 24-year low despite signs that the Bank of Japan is preparing an intervention to prop up the currency. Japanese authorities have been stepping up verbal warnings with the yen down almost 20.0% against the U.S. dollar this year.

Housing starts in Canada declined 3.0% In August from July.


Futures are lower after a major U.S. package delivery company yesterday provided weak guidance.

The 9:00 central time September consumer sentiment index is expected to be 59.9.

Prospects of an even more aggressive tightening policy further dented sentiment.

The dominant fundamental is the hawkish Federal Reserve.


According to financial futures markets, there is an 80.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will hike its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and a 20.0% probability that the rate will increase by 100 basis points at the September 21 policy meeting.

The inverted Treasury yield curve is becoming more inverted and continues to warn of economic risks ahead.

The bearish influence of a hawkish Federal Reserve is overpowering the bullish influence of a weakening economy.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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