Demand Prospects in Cocoa
Cocoa will continue to have concerns with global demand beyond the Halloween holiday, but the market is showing signs that it was extremely oversold at last week’s lows. With near-term supply issues providing fresh support, cocoa should be able to extend this current recovery move. A sharp rally in the Eurocurrency became a major source of carryover support for the cocoa market as it should help to improve near-term European demand prospects.
Coffee prices continue to hold their ground above the early October lows, but are finding fresh demand-side pressure that may be difficult to overcome. While the market is approaching “bargain” price levels again, coffee is vulnerable to additional selling.
December cotton remains in a steep uptrend and the buying Monday pushed the market up to the highest level since January 29. Above normal rain forecast for the southeast and Delta regions has traders increasingly worried about harvest and demand factors remain supportive.
Sugar prices have overcome sluggish global risk sentiment and lukewarm energy prices to extend their October rally even further into new high ground. While there have been some bullish near-term supply developments, it may be difficult for sugar to take out their multi-year highs from February unless there is a significant longer-term change in the 2020/21 global supply outlook.
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