Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are higher as demand optimism out of the US lifted sentiment. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME gained 0.7% to $13,257. Last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling has lifted sentiment in Asian markets, given the reduction in tariff levels, driving renewed interest in industrial metals after the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Firmer demand in China has also supported the bid. Physical demand in China has picked up, with the Yangshan copper premium rising to $53 a ton from $33 two weeks ago.
Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses continue to rise at 249,650 tons, the highest level since March 2025, and are now up roughly 80% since January 9. The steady accumulation points to subdued physical offtake and a lack of urgency from buyers. Evidence of inventory withdrawal will likely offer support to prices following weeks of rising inventories. In warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, copper stocks have climbed 180% to 272,475 tons since mid-December. Copper stocks on the LME, SHFE and on the COMEX exchange combined have exceeded a million ton for the first time in more than two decades.
Zinc: Zinc was little changed at $3,381.
Aluminum: Aluminum advanced 1.2% to $3,131.
Tin: Tin traded up 5.1% at $52,880 after hitting $53,100, its highest level in four weeks as supply concerns arise from Indonesia. The Indonesian government is studying a plan to ban exports of raw materials, including tin.
Lead: Lead added 0.4% to $1,963.
Nickel: Nickel firmed 0.2% to $17,950. An Indonesian official said the government was considering revoking the environmental permit of a company after a landslide hit a mine waste zone at its nickel processing hub.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are little changed as risk sentiment hangs in the mix ahead of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings after the bell. Geopolitical risks are also in focus, with the US and Iran set to hold a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday. Iran is nearing a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles, according to Reuters sources, which could target US naval forces that have assembled near the Iranian coast.
Markets remain in wait-and-see mode on US trade policy after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariff measures. The administration has since imposed a blanket 15% levy on imports, while existing trade agreements with the EU and India remain in flux after both sides paused implementation or negotiations. President Trump also warned that countries retreating from recent trade deals could face higher duties under alternative trade statutes, keeping uncertainty elevated.
From a macro perspective, recent data continues to support a patient Federal Reserve stance. Headline and core PCE both rose 0.4% in December, lifting core inflation to 3.0% year-over-year, while Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% from 4.4% in Q3 amid weaker government spending and exports. The combination of moderating growth and sticky services inflation reduces the urgency for near-term easing.
Structural support for gold remains intact, as central banks continue diversifying reserves and adding to bullion holdings, reinforcing a steady underlying bid into 2026.
Silver: Silver futures are up 2.8% to $90.00
Platinum: Platinum is up 5.20% to $2,300.
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