Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 10 cents and near 11.99. SMH is near 347.0. BOH is near 46.52. CH is down 4 cents and near 4.41. WH is down 10 cents and near 5.90. KWH is down 10 cents and near 6.15. MWH is down 8 cents and near 6.96. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude tested $79 on increase Middle East tension. Killing of US troops could expand the Middle East war. China announced liquidation of property company Evergrande.
SH is below 12.00. SMH is making new lows. Concern over lower demand weighed on futures. Argentina 8 day forecast is warm and dry. Rain is in the forecast after day 8. Trade estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 293 mil bu vs USDA 280 and 2024/25 carryout at 378. This assume a 2024 crop of 4,483 vs 4,165 in 2023. It also assumes record US crush of 2,470. It assumes US soybean exports will increase 100 mil bu? Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were lower.
CH prices are lower as Managed funds are adding to corn short on weak technical signals. Need increase demand for US corn export or lower South America supplies to rally futures. SA weather looks mostly favorable. Trade estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout near 2,280 mil bu vs USDA 2,162 and 2024/25 carryout at 2,927. This due to higher carryin. Dalian corn futures were higher.
Wheat futures are lower. WH is back below 6.00. It appears that the market has digested USDA lower than expected estimate of 2024 US winter wheat acres. Russia and EU wheat prices remain a discount to US. Some were confused about Egypt Minister comments that Egypt would import only 7 mmt of wheat vs trade estimate of 11.4.
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