US Delta to Take Another Storm Hit
Since reaching a 3-month low in mid-October, cocoa prices have seen 6 positive daily result over the past 7 sessions as near-term supply issues have offset ongoing global demand concerns. While sluggish outside markets and subdued global risk sentiment are likely to weigh on prices, cocoa should be able to climb above its 50-day moving average for the first time since October 1st.
The coffee market continues with coiling price action and remains nearly 30.00 cents (down 21.2%) below their early September highs. While overall global demand concerns continue to weigh on the market, coffee is finding fresh supply/demand support that can help the market extend a recovery move. While there has been rainfall over Brazil’s major Arabica-growing regions, precipitation totals have been below average.
Yet another storm is headed to the Gulf Coast and is expected to make landfall this week. The models have Tropical Storm Zeta strengthening to a hurricane and making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday or Thursday. It has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. There is also a front bringing snow, sleet and ice to the southwestern cotton belt which could slow harvest in Texas. Harvest progress is close to average despite all the inclement weather, but growers in parts of the southeast will have to make it through another hurricane and bout of heavy rain.
Sugar prices have been resilient in the face of negative outside markets, sluggish global risk sentiment and a very large net spec long position. A sharp selloff in energy prices put carryover pressure on the sugar market as that may dampen near-term Brazilian ethanol demand prospects.
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