Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is unch and near 12.03. SMH is near 362.8. BOH is near 45.60. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.46. WH is up 2 cents and near 6.04. KWH is up 7 cents and near 6.28. MWH is up 5 cents and near 7.01. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
SH is near 12.03. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. US Dec crush was 204 mil bu vs 200 in Nov and 187 last year. US Dec soyoil and soymeal stocks were higher. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 164 mt with total commit near 38.1 mmt vs 47.1 ly. Weekly US soymeal sales jumped 494 mt. Brazil farmer has slowed new sales but this is offset by lack of new China buying. Argentina dropped their soybean crop rating to 36 pct G/E vs 44 last week but still above 14 ly. Rains are due next week. China Lunar new year starts Feb 10.
CH is near 4.46. Overnight, Crude futures are higher. Recent CH range has been 4.38-4.48. Hard to break below support with talk of lower SA crops. CH is hard to rally due to slower demand. US corn export sales were 1.2 mmt and higher than expected. Total commit is up 31 pct vs last year. Weekly US ethanol production increased, Stocks were down 1 pct vs last year. US cattle herd is lowest since 1951. Matif corn is making new lows due to higher EU supplies. EU farmers called off blockades.
Wheat futures are higher WH is near 6.04. KWH 6.28. MWH 7.01. There were rumors of China interest in French and US wheat. US wheat export sales were 322 mt with total commit up 4 pct vs ly and USDA est of 4 pct drop. NE Africa remains dry. US plains and Canada weather is improving. Global wheat import demand has slowed as buyers search for funding. Red Sea unrest could add to freight cost and slow demand.
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