Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
December already? Grains are mostly lower. SF is down 11 cents and near 14.59. SMF is near 419.0. BOF is near 68.72. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.65. WH is down 5 cents and near 7.90. KWH is down 6 cents and near 8.93. MWH is down 5 cents and near 9.37.
Argentina is dry. Brazil weather is favorable. Cold weather is expected in Russia and Ukraine. EU is dry with colder temps next week. US rains in PNW, Delta and SE. US south plains is dry. US Midwest is cold.
Soybeans and soyoil futures are lower. Despite talk China may be relaxing some covid rules, window for new US sales to China is closing. Some feel EPA mandated blend numbers were disappointing. Still most feel long-term demand for biofuel will be friendly to soyoil futures. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 500-1,000 mt. Brazil weather is favorable as soybeans begin to enter key pod setting and pod fill stage. C Brazil is a little dry. Argentina is dry with Dec 3-10 temps above normal.
Corn futures dropped after CH failed to trade over 6.69. 6.61 is now next support. Lack of new demand foe US corn exports limits upside despite firm domestic cash basis. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,000 mt. China domestic corn prices remain high but show no sign of buying US corn. Ukraine corn is offered near $266 vs US $315. Brazil is $288. Higher US ethanol stocks vs last year could suggest lower gas demand. USDA est US 2023 corn crop production cost per acre near $870 down $11 from last year. Net revenue est at $281 per acre vs soybean at $188. Soybean is down slightly from last years highest level since 2011.
Wheat futures are lower. Wheat futures found some support on Wednesday due to talk of higher US domestic feed use and month end profit taking. Funds were estimated to be net short 66,000 contracts. Some feel in 2023 US south plains could see slight improvement in rains. US Dollar is lower. Nov US job growth dropped 47 pct from Oct. Nov job opening dropped 7 pct form last year. US home sales dropped 37 pct. Russia wheat supply and export prices still is lowest to buyers. US SRW export prices have narrowed gap with France. 2 week Black Sea and EU temp forecast is for colder temps. Russia 2nd week temps look colder but could snow before temps drop.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. China may be slowly relaxing Covid quarantine rules. Traders took US Fed Chairman comments as dovish.
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