ADMIS News
SUGAR
May sugar was higher early Thursday, finding support from a rally in crude oil. The market has been drawing support from expectations that the energy market rally will encourage Brazilian cane crushers to focus more on ethanol and less on sugar output. That was already expected to some degree after sugar prices fell last year, but the Iran war has pushed those expectations further.
COFFEE
May coffee was lower early Thursday, giving back Wednesday’s gains. The market has seen choppy, two-sided action for four sessions but no trend. On the bearish side are expectations for a large crop in Brazil and worries about Mideast demand due to the Iran war. Coffee may have benefited from Wednesday’s optimism that the Iran war may end soon, but those hopes were dashed overnight in the wake of President Trump’s speech. On the bullish side are concerns over higher fertilizer prices that will affect output and low stocks in Japan and Europe.
COTTON
May Cotton was lower overnight after inching above Wednesday’s high earlier in the session but it remained well above Wednesday’s low. The market may have drawn some support from a recovery in crude oil prices after selling off on Wednesday in the wake of the USDA Prospective Plantings Report on Tuesday. The report was a bearish surprise and pulled the market off its nine-month highs ahead of its release. The report put US 2026 cotton planted area at 9.640 million acres, which was above expectations and up from 9.400 million in the February Outlook Forum data and up from 9.28 million last year. On the other hand dry conditions in the US cotton belt and high fertilizer prices could increase abandonment rate and/or lower yields.
COCOA
May Cocoa was mostly steady early Thursday and inside Wednesday’s range. The market is approaching the top of a narrow, month-long trading range. There was a Bloomberg story yesterday that said US Easter chocolate sales are tracking toward a 5% decline from last year. For the 1st quarter grind data, which is expected to be released on April 16, dealers have told Reuters they look for Europe’s grind to be down 2% to 4% and North America’s down 10% to 12% from last year.
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