Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
April Crude Oil pushed through the January high early Thursday to its highest level since June on increasing concerns about the potential for US military action against Iran. The military buildup in the Middle East is the largest since the Iraq war, though this one is considerable smaller. Iran issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) that it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 330 GMT to 1330 GMT.
The API report Wednesday night was bullish for crude oil and neutral for the products, though the market is not paying close attention.
PRODUCTS
Product prices rallied early Thursday on the growing expectations for a US strike against Iran. Wednesday’s API report was neutral against expectation, but the trade ignored that. API gasoline stocks were -312,000 versus expectations for -300,000, and distillates were -1.57 million versus -1.4 million expected.
NATURAL GAS
April Natural Gas was higher early Thursday, possibly finding support from the increased anticipation of a US strike against Iran. The 6-10- and 8-14-day forecasts continue to show a preponderance of above normal temperatures across the lower 48 states, which will limit heating demand as the end of the season approaches. The much above normal temps this week will come back to earth later this week, the overall trend is still warmer than normal.
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