ADMIS News
COTTON
December Cotton is moderately higher this morning following a steep selloff to new contract lows on Friday. The market got spooked after President Trump threatened 100% tariffs of Chinese imports to the US after China imposed new restrictions on export of rare earth metals. China has not been a big importer of US cotton in recent years, but there may have been some hope that they could buy more this year if some sort of trade agreement was reached. The collapse in equity prices pressured the market as well, as cotton is an economically sensitive commodity to begin with. The lack of any updates on US crop progress or export sales due to the government shutdown leaves the market flying blind. The last Crop Progress report from two weeks ago showed the US crop was in good condition and bolls opening and harvest progress close to normal. The last export sales report cumulative US cotton sales for 2025/26 were the lowest in 11 years and that sales had only reached 36% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five year average of 53% for that date (September 18). World Weather Inc says West Texas rain last night and today will be followed by a dry trend for the next 10 days, which should be good for harvest and only lead to a temporary discoloring of cotton fiber at most. Xinjiang, China crops are rated favorably.
SUGAR
March Sugar collapsed overnight, falling to new contact lows. The Brazilian real collapsed on Friday, which pressures growers into selling for export. Analysts’ forecasts are calling for a significant global surplus for 2025/26, aided by expectations for strong crops out of Thailand and India and a stronger outlook for Brazilian production. The UNICA report on Brazilian center south production for the second half of September production should come out this week. The last report showed cumulative production for 2025/26 was running 0.1% behind a year ago. Production for the first half of September was up 15.7% from year-ago. Sugar’s share of the crush was 53.5% for the period versus 47.75 a year ago. Demand expectations are declining with the increasing popularity (and apparent success) of new weight loss drugs.
COCOA
December Cocoa extended last week’s selloff overnight and fell to its lowest level since November 7 of last year, as the trade has become more and more convinced that the main crop harvest out of west Africa is coming in strong. World Weather Inc. says showers and thunderstorms are expected periodically over the next week to ten days from Ivory Coast through Ghana and Benin to Cameroon and Nigeria. The precipitation will be of light to moderate intensity most days, and nearly all of the region will eventually be impacted. A areas will get rain multiple times during the forecast period. The quarterly grind data for Europe, Asia, and North America are due to be released on Thursday. This could be a pivot day, either on a steep selloff off another low number or a rally off a better than expected one. ICE exchange stocks fell 16,023 bags on Friday to 1.895 million, their lowest since April 18. Stocks fell 46,518 bags last week.
COFFEE
December Coffee is higher this morning and is back in the upper end of a two-week range. There is nothing new to report on the US-Brazil tariff situation, and in the meantime ICE exchange stocks continue to decline. They fell 10,151 bags on Friday to 509,383, their lowest since March 18, 2024. The trade remains hopeful that a trade deal between the US and Brazil will emerge if and when President Trump meets with Brazilian President Lula da Silva. Seasonal rains appear to be reaching Brazilian growing areas, which should be beneficial for the next crop. World Weather Inc. says scattered showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase in Brazil coffee production areas during the next ten days. Most of the crop region south of Bahia will get rain and many areas will receive it multiple times. The moisture will be good for future flowering, pollination and cherry setting. Vietnam, Indonesia, southern India, Central America, Mexico, the Greater Antilles and most of west-central Africa will receive routinely occurring showers and thunderstorms maintaining a favorable environment for coffee development.
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