ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa pushed above the 50-day moving average on Tuesday and extended its rally early Wednesday, a technical breakout. Volatile action on the cocoa market is not unusual, but prices are now up $1,280 from the November low (+26%) and RSI is up around 74, putting the market in short-term overbought territory. Adding to support was a drop in Ivory Coast port arrivals last week to parity with a year ago (85,000 tons) after several weeks of them coming in above 100,000. Traders view this as an indication that the main crop may not be as strong as they had thought.
Aromatic cocoa beans as background, Cocoa Beans and Cocoa Fruits on wooden.
COTTON
The USDA Supply/Demand report was bearish, with US 2025/26 production and ending stocks coming in above average expectations and the stocks/use ratio the highest in 6 years. US exports were left unchanged despite the slow pace of sales so far this year. The fact that weekly export sales updates are still about three weeks behind schedule (due to the government shutdown) may have USDA reluctant to adjust the forecast lower. The bearish US numbers were mitigated somewhat by a world production and ending stocks coming in below expectations. Having the supply/demand report in the rearview mirror, the Export Sales report from Monday that showed cotton sales for the week ending November 6 at 388,938 bales, the strongest since last January may gain recognition.
COFFEE
March Coffee was higher early Wednesday, as the market has continued to chop around inside a range determined by the introduction and cancellation of the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports into the US. Cecafe reported on Tuesday that Brazil’s green coffee exports for November totaled 3.28 million bags down 27.1% from a year ago. They look for the number to improve for December now that the tariffs have been lifted.
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Wednesday, reversing a selloff from the previous session. After recently completing a crop tour, sugar analysts at Green Pool said cane farmers in Thailand are switching to cassava due to low sugar prices and the emergence of white leaf disease in some areas, according to a story on Reuters.
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