Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Bitcoin is lower. US, Ukraine and EU in Geneva discussing Black Sea peace deal. US rains are in E TX and AR. Showers are moving into KS. Short trading week due to holiday.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.22. 29 DMA is near 11.25. Balance in price outlook could be shifting to bearish. Brazil and Argentina rains are forecast late this week. Brazil soymeal export prices are $39 lower than US. This could shift EU demand to Brazil. Delay in EUDR could also help Brazil soybean sales to EU. US crush record high with good margins and plenty of soybeans available to crush which will add soymeal supply. US soymeal prices need to drop to find demand. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout near 474 mil bu vs USDA 290. Record 26/27 crush cannot offset higher acres and suggest carryout near 510 mil bu.
CORN
CH is near 4.35. 100 DMA is near 4.35. Some feel corn prices entering a supply bear market given estimates of higher South America supply and front loaded US export demand. Trade below 4.35 CH could suggest and test of 4.10-4.15. Dec first notice with corn open interest still large at 221,000 contracts. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout near 2,360 mil bu vs USDA 2,154. Record 26/27 FSI and lower acres cannot offset higher carryin and lower exports which suggest carryout near 2,500 mil bu.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.35. KWH is near 5.21. MWH is near 5.73. WH 50 DMA is 5.37. Support gap near 5.14. Wheat is a follower with too much World wheat supply. Argentina wheat export prices $40 below US. Black Sea peace could increase grain and fertilizer supplies to buyers. US 26/27 US carryout is est near 840 mil bu vs private est of 25/26 880 due to lower acres and yield. US exports could also drop 60 mil bu from 25/26.
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