Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 6 cents and near 14.16. SX is up 3 cents and near 12.67. SMK is near 399.6. BOK is near 54.43. CK is up 4 cents and near 5.98. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.15 and new highs. WK is up 4 cents and near 6.52. KWK is up 5 cents and near 6.09. MWK is up 3 cents and near 6.64. US stocks are higher in front of more US Banks earnings. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US jobs, retail sales and industrial production data today.
Weekly US soybean and wheat export sales should be low. Corn sales and shipment should remain high.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 41 yuan in soybeans, up 41 in Corn, up 37 in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 108 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 61 ringgit at 3,791 (basis June) at midsession supported by improving exports.
USDA NASS will review process to est grain stocks. Similar review 4 years ago by U of IL found no issues.
US Midwest 6-10 day weather suggest cold temps and below normal rains through April 29. Brazil is dry. NOAA 90 day US Midwest forecast today. Their 30 day suggest a warm and dry May. EU is dry. Rains are expected to fall across US south plains today through Saturday. Long range is dry and warm. Some heard that Wednesdays grain rally was linked to funds buying into potential US summer weather.
Soyoil prices firm on talk that US summer soybean crush could drop due to low soybean supplies. US March NOPA soybean crush could be record high. World soymeal prices continue lower.
There is talk that steady rains has reduced Argentina harvested soybean acres and soybean quality. In Oct, Brazil soybean basis was +350. Fell to -17 in late March. Now +28. Still no China interest.
Matif new crop rapeseed futures trade higher on freeze damage concerns. Canada futures new highs.
Dry weather in Brazil pushing domestic corn prices record high. Talk of Argentina exports to Brazil. USDA expects Brazil to export 22 mmt of corn in Aug-Sep? May USDA US/World 2021/22 S/D important.
Matif corn futures tending higher and 6 month highs and following higher wheat prices. Matif wheat futures up and 3 week highs. Some concern about recent freeze and dry W EU weather.
Cold and dry US Midwest weather could slow corn plantings. Some doubt farmer will increase acres. US north plains and Canada prairies weather forecast is expected to remain dry.
US ethanol buyers willing to pay +25 for June corn. US river basis now +50.
US monthly domestic corn use will rise to 1.0 bil bu per month Jun-Aug. Prices need to ration demand.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat, 16,000 contracts of Corn; 12,000 Soybeans, 6,000 lots of soyoil, and 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 457,000 Corn; net long 153,000 Soybeans; long 57,000 Soymeal, and; net long 75,000 Soyoil. Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,000 contracts; Corn up 19,000; Soybeans up 11,000 contracts and; Soyoil up 8,000.
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