Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold & Silver:
Gold is trying to recover, but escalating Middle East tensions now cut both ways: they support safe-haven demand while higher oil prices intensify inflation and Fed-hike risk. The balance of evidence still leans modestly bullish as a weaker US Dollar and persistent investment demand offset pressure from higher yields. December gold is trading around $4,438, down 2.6% over the last three sessions. Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI should help to determine if high yields or haven demand wins the short-term tug-of-war.
Silver provides only modest confirmation of the uptrend rather than leadership. December futures trade near $66.96, testing channel support and holding the 5D MA near $66.78 but below the 100D MA near $68.02.
BASE METALS
Copper:
Copper’s breakout is fundamentally supported, but the rally is becoming increasingly vulnerable to its own success. LME three-month copper reached a record $14,779/ton, while COMEX futures pushed toward $6.78/lb. The immediate drivers include constrained mine supply and U.S. tariff uncertainty. Global mine production fell 1.1% y/y during the first half of 2026, while tariff positioning continues to pull refined metal toward the U.S., leaving inventories tighter elsewhere. The latest LME inventory decline of 1,900 tons to 235,825 tons reinforces the scarcity story.
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