Written Commentary
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices edged higher following the release of several PMI figures out of Europe and ahead of US PMI readings. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.2% at $9,990 a ton. UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in September 2025, down from 47.0 in August and below market expectations of 47.1. Survey respondents pointed to weak domestic and export orders, including specific disruptions in the automotive supply chain due to plant stoppages at Jaguar Land Rover. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September 2025, down from August’s 38-month high of 50.7 and missing market expectations of 50.7. The reading signaled a renewed downturn in the sector, driven by the sharpest drop in new orders since February.
On the supply front, copper inventories in warehouses certified by the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed by 12.5% to the highest since early June at 105,814 tons, weekly data showed on Friday. COMEX stocks continued to climb higher at 318,285 tons on Monday. Chile’s state copper miner Codelco said its biggest mine, El Teniente, will take longer to return to full production than originally forecast after a deadly tunnel collapse in July. The fall in production will probably exceed the 33,000 tons originally forecast by the company. The mine is estimated to produce slightly more than 300,000 tons of copper this year, from 356,000 last year.
Zinc: Zinc dropped 0.4% to $2,881.50 a ton.
Zinc inventories in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange have slumped in recent months, suggesting a tight market. Zinc stocks in LME warehouses have dropped 75% from mid-April to their lowest since May 2023. Meanwhile, cancelled warrants indicate another 16,450 tons are due to leave LME storage.
Aluminum: Aluminum is little changed at $2,644 a ton.
Tin: Tin is little changed at $34,005.
Lead: Lead fell 0.3% to $1,992.
Nickel: Nickel slipped 0.1% to $15,235.
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices climbed to a fresh record, with continued support from expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Fed. Markets will await remarks from several Fed officials today, including Fed Chair Powell for clues on policy direction. Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in October, following last week’s cut that sent mixed signals across markets. Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing, describing the move as a risk-management measure in response to a softening labor market. Governor Miran said on Monday that interest rates are too high and would put the job market at risk without aggressive rate cuts, conversely, other Fed officials who spoke on Monday stressed the need for caution in adjusting policy amid elevated price pressures. The Main focus will be on Friday’s PCE inflation figures for August, as markets will keenly gauge the extent to which tariffs have caused inflation. A stable reading could reinforce expectations of continued easing out of the Fed, while signs of sticky inflation could dent expectations and act as a short-term headwind for bullion prices.
Central bank and ETF purchasing of gold continues to provide underlying support to prices. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.60% to 1,000.57 tons, a more than three-year high on Monday from Friday. China extended its gold-buying streak to ten consecutive months in August, and official data now shows central bank gold holdings have surpassed US Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996. Poland’s central bank is also pushing to raise gold’s share of reserves from 20% to 30%. Despite elevated bullion prices, central bank buying remains resilient, providing a solid price floor for gold, especially as easing in US interest rates could offer further support.
Silver: Silver futures are higher. Silver continues to see sustained support from strong fundamentals, with tight supply underpinning prices and a solid demand picture from solar, electric vehicle, and other tech industries.
Platinum: Platinum futures are sharply higher, up over 3.8%. Platinum is gaining support amid a persistent supply gap caused by weak mine output and stagnant recycling. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects South Africa’s mine supply to fall 6% this year. Although recycled platinum supply is improving modestly, it remains at historically low levels.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
