ADMIS News
COFFEE
December Coffee has been consolidating its August gains for the past two weeks, which has allowed it to correct a technically overbought condition. The market is close to contract highs, as tight exchange stocks and recent reductions expectations for Brazil’s 2025/26 crop have helped fuel the rally. Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop to 55.2 million bags this week from 55.7 million estimated in May. Arabica production was lowered to 35.2 million bags from 37 previously. Robusta production estimated at 20 million bags, up from 18.7 million. This drop in arabica production follows a similar reduction by Safras & Mercado last week. Brazil exported 142,848 metric tons of green coffee in August, down from 207,071 for the same period last year. Colombia’s coffee production reached 1.243 million bags in August, up from 1.049 million for August 2024. The harvest was delayed by excessive rains during the first half of the year. The 12-month production total is 14.798 million bags, the highest since April and up from 12.536 million from a year ago.
SUGAR
October Sugar pushed lower for the fourth session in a row overnight and was approaching the 2 ½-year low from July. Strong crops expected out of India and Thailand, a recovery in Brazil’s production last month, and a smaller global deficit forecast by the International Sugar Organization have undermined support. Brazil exported 3.74 million metric tons of sugar in August, down from 3.92 million in August 2024. The ISO said last Friday that it expects the 2025/26 production deficit to narrow to 231,000 metric tons from a deficit of 4.88 million in 2024/25. The Indian government announced this week that it is allowing more ethanol production from cane products, which suggest they are confident that their sugar supply will be ample this year. Last Friday’s UNICA report showed Brazilian Center South sugar production for the first half of August coming in 16% higher than the same period a year ago. Cumulative production since the season started in April was running -4.7% from a year ago versus -7.7% at the end of July. This was the narrowest the deficit had been all year.
COCOA
December Cocoa is approaching Tuesday’s four-week low this morning. West African rains have been staying north of the cocoa growing areas, and World Weather Service does not expect that to change much during the next week. This follows a seasonal pattern, but relief has been slow to arrive. This is capturing the attention of market analysts, with one noting this week that the past 60 days have been the driest on record since 1979. This may also start to draw the attention of traders if rains to not return soon. Earlier this week, Ivory Coast farmers were quite upbeat about production. Mondelez Chief Financial Officer Luca Zaramella said at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference on Wednesday that the latest pod count in Africa was 7% above the five year average and “materially higher’ than last year’s crop, but he added that the crop was still developing. Much will depend on the timely arrival of rains. ICE exchange stocks fell 7,404 bags yesterday to 2.145 million, the lowest since May 15.
COTTON
December Cotton held inside yesterday’s range overnight, and the market has managed to hold above Tuesday’s low all week. The US crop looks like it is in good shape, and US export prospects remain dim, yet traders appear reluctant to push the downside ahead of today’s export sales report. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have are the slowest in 11 years. As of last week’s report, sales had reached 30% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 47%. China has purchased no US cotton so far for 2025/26. There have been some suggestions that the ample rains this season in Texas (and the strong crop conditions) will prompt a revision higher in US production for next Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. As of Sunday, 51% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent versus a five-year average for that date of 44%. Texas was 44% G/E versus 31% on average. World Weather Service said yesterday that many of Texas’ production areas had a drier forecast for the coming week to 10 days that would be good for harvesting in the south and for aggressive crop development in West Texas after recent rains. Northern Delta crops have dried out resulting in some crop stress. The US Drought Monitor showed 30% of US cotton production was in an area experiencing drought as of September 2, on par with the previous week but up from 5% as recently as August 12. This is due to the drought in the northern Delta.
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