Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 4 cents and near 14.53. SMN is near 446.2. BON is near 53.56. CN is down 2 cents and near 6.12. WN is up 5 cents and near 6.78. KWN is up 7 cents and near 8.33. MWN is up 9 cents and near 8.55. US stocks are lower. China stocks are lower on growth worries. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Corn futures have dropped below 6.20 CN support. Corn futures gave up longs on low weekly US export sales and talk that eventually the US corn crop will get planted. Trade estimate 23-25 pct of US corn crop is planted. This week. US Midwest temps remain below average. This could slow plantings. Some est US 2022/23 corn carryout closer to 1,290 vs USDA 1,342 due to higher exports. 2023/24 could be near 2,145 due to higher acres and yield.
Soybean futures are back above 14.50 SN. Trade estimate 16-18 pct of US soybean crop is planted. Word that US will import 2 Brazil soybean cargoes offered resistance. But that could be the extent of imports. US monthly crush was higher than expected. Some est US 2022/23 soybean carryout closer to 270 vs USDA 210 due to lower exports. 2023/24 could be near 365 due to higher acres and yield.
Last week, WN traded to lowest level in 23 months. Slow export demand and lower Russia and EU prices offers resistance. Cold US south plains weekend temps is offering support to futures overnight. It will take a few days to access the extent of damage to US HRW crop. US north plains and west Canada remains wet and cold. This could slow planting the HRS crop there. Some est US 2023/24 wheat carryout could be near 650 due to higher acres and yield.
In a surprise move, UN suggested west should accede to Russia request to be allowed back to access to Swift and drop sanctions against Banks that finance Russia exports. Still, G7 suggested ban on Russian exports. Russia said that would guarantee end of Ukraine export corridor deal.
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