Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Volatile choppy trade continues until after USDA report and until more is known about US/Russia summer weather. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and may be finding support near $77. Gold is lower.
SN is near 12.32. US Midwest weather improving for plantings. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop near 4,440 mil bu vs 4,165 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 339 mil bu vs USDA 340 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 431 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 147 mmt vs USDA 155. Dalian soybean and soyoil were lower. China April soybean import was record high for month but behind pact to reach USDA goal. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 200-600 mt vs 414 last week.
CN is near 4.61. US crop off to a good start. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 2,100 mil bu vs USDA 2,122 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 2,284 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. He est Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt down 2 mmt from previous est and vs USDA 55. Argentina Rosario exchange est Argentina corn crop at 47.5 mmt vs BAGE 46,5 and USDA 50. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 600-1,100 mt vs 758 last week.
WN is near 6.43. Trade estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 786 mil bu due to higher crop. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,884 mil bu vs 1,812 ly. Winter wheat 1.311 vs 1,248 ly. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 786 mil bu. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-600 mt vs 407 last week. France is wet and Ukraine and Russia is cold and dry.
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