Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Choppy trend limits new trade volume. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher on Central Bank buying and waiting for new US inflation data. Russia and China pledged to deepen alliance against US attempt to dominate World order. China and Russia 2023 trade was up 26 pct to record $245 billion. March China imports of Russia Crude was record volume.
SK is near 11.78. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower on talk of increase Brazil imports. Palmoil was higher. Soyoil prices were lower. US export sales tomorrow. WASDE report tomorrow. Trade looks for USDA to keep US 2023/24 carryout near 315 mil bu. Trade also looks for USDA to drop Brazil soybean crop 3-4 mmt. Last week China bought 30 cargoes of Brazil soybeans. Brazil soybean fob basis is over US futures for first time this harvest. Brazil April soymeal salles were double ly. USDA will update US soybean planting progress Monday. Rain are forecasted for parts of US Midwest next week.
CK is near 4.33. Dalian corn futures were higher on talk of restricted imports. West Midwest weather forecast is dry which should speed plantings. East, south and SE is wet which could slow plantings. US cash corn basis is firming on slow farmer selling. CK-CN spread has narrowed into -10. US export sales tomorrow. WASDE report tomorrow. Trade looks for USDA to drop US 2023/24 corn carryout 70 mil bu. Trade also looks for USDA to drop Brazil corn crop 2 mmt.. Brazil corn futures continue lower and near 3 week low as needed rains are forecast for the dry corn areas.
WK is near 5.63. US south plains forecast increased chances of rain. US export sales tomorrow. USDA report tomorrow. Trade looks for USDA to increase US 2023/24 wheat carryout 20 mil bu. US HRW protein basis levels are lower on talk US millers have good coverage. Some look for Russia wheat crop above 90 mmt. This will be first year that Russia will incorporate wheat from occupied Ukraine territory in new crop estimates. This could push Russia crop over 100 mmt. USDA will not do the same. Russia continues to act like they will intervene on export policy. Poland will bailout farmers with cash subsidy payment.
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