Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are marginally higher on talk of lower US rates. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Crude could be supported by geo political uncertainty. Russia threatened EU/US with an uncontrolled escalation of war if NATO allies allow Ukraine to use long range missiles/drones. Putin commodity export ban threat does not include wheat, corn or soyoil. Poor China retail sales and drop in property values offered resistance to commodities esp copper. Coffee is making new highs.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.00. Some feel SX could be in a choppy 9.55-10.31 range. US Midwest remains dry. Most look for USDA to drop crop ratings 1-2 pct. US domestic soybean basis is lower ahead of harvest. SX-SF spread remains wide. Soybeans dropped Friday on talk China bought Brazil Oct beans. Key to soybean futures could be South America weather over next 45 days. Forecast is dry and warm across C and N Brazil.
CORN
CZ is near 4.09. CZ-CH spread remains wide before US harvest. Some feel CZ could be in a choppy 3.85-4.20 range. Corn is supported by dry US and South America weather. Some are beginning to doubt USDA 183.6 corn yield. Most look for USDA to drop crop ratings 1-2 pct. Question is will US farmer try to store as much of the 2024 corn crop as he can or be forced to sell enough cash to keep spreads wide, basis soft and futures lower.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.88. KWZ is near 5.92. MWZ is near 6.27. Wheat futures rallied over June and July lows. This is more a weather rally than demand. Some feel Managed funds could reestablish wheat shorts near 6.15 WZ. Key is demand for US wheat and 2024 south hemisphere/Russia and 2025 crop weather.
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