Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Choppy trade continues with grains higher. SN is up 18 cents and near 15.78. SX is up 13 cents and near 14.31. SMN is near 388.4. BON is near 71.64. CN is up 8 cents and near 6.88. CZ is up 9 cents and near 6.11. WN is up 6 cents and near 6.86. KWN is up 6 cents and near 6.36. MWN is up 10 cents and near 7.95.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Copper lower on increase virus in China and EU. China also continues to try to talk commodity prices down. Index funds continue to roll grain longs out of the July. China Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
USDA lowered US 2021 corn crop to 72 pct G/E. ND 42 pct, SD 46 pct, IA 77, IL 74, NE 84. USDA estimated 67 [ct US 2021 soybean crop is 67 pct G/E. AR 74, IL 73, IA 73, MN 70, ND 25. USDA rated the US 2021 spring wheat crop 38 pct G/E vs 82 ly and lowest since 1988. US 2021 winter wheat crop 2 pct harvested vs 7 ave. Crop is 50 pct G/E vs 48 last week. WA 25.
Rains are forecast for Canada prairies and OH river valley. 8-14 day warm and dry. Russia dry
USDA report Thursday. USDA is not expected to change US 2021 corn acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,507. Some talk Brazil corn crop near 85-87 mmt. Informa est US 2021/22 carryout near 1,738 due to est of acres closer to 96.8 vs USDA 91.1
Some feel USDA will keep US 20/21 soybean carryout at 120 mil bu. They will not change US 2021 acres and yield. Some could see higher US 2021/22 demand and a carryout near 110 vs USDA 140.
USDA could Increase US 2021 wheat crop but eventually a lower HRW crop could offset higher SRW.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; even corn; bought 4,000 soybeans; 4,000 soyoil and sold 6,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money to be net short 4,000 SRW Wheat; net long 288,000 Corn; long 165,000 Soybeans; long 11,000 Soymeal, and; net long 106,000 Soyoil.
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