Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grain futures are higher. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch near $73.
SU is near 9.61. Market is oversold. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. 2 week dry and warm US Midwest forecast is offering support. Pro Farmer IN and NE soybean pod count were higher than last year. IN highest since 2002. USDA announced 132 mt US new crop soybeans to China. USDA also announced 239 mt US new crop soybeans to Mexico. Need daily sales to China to push futures closer to 10.00.
CU is near 3.77. Dalian corn futures were higher. 2 week dry and warm US Midwest forecast is offering support. Pro Farmer IN corn yield was 187.5 vs 180.9 ly and NE 173.2 vs 167.2 last year. Fact US farmer has 2023 corn to sell before harvest and 2024 corn offers resistance. Corn futures remain is slight downtrend. China import demand could be lower than USDA est. US 2023/24 carryout is near 1,867 vs 1,360 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is near 2,200.
WU is near 5.34. .WU remains in a 5.15-5.50 range with volume in decline. Lower US Dollar offers support. Parts of Black Sea wheat areas are dry while parts of Russia spring wheat areas have turned wetter. US south plains is warm and dry. Global wheat import demand remains slow and limits upside in US and Matif futures. Slow farmer selling offers support. MWU is supported by possible Canada rail strike.
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