Written Commentary
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices continued their pullback as weak industrial data out of China and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Three-month copper on the LME slipped to $10,915 touching a record high on Wednesday of $11,200. China’s factory activity shrank for a seventh month in October, dragged down by a drop in new export orders as the boost from months of front-loading to beat US tariff threats finally wore off. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in October from 49.8 in September, a six-month low, the National Bureau of Statistics’ survey showed on Friday. Factory owners stepped up efforts to reach new customers in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, but are increasingly selling at a loss with no other markets to absorb anywhere near the $400 billion of goods the US once purchased. The Yangshan copper premium, which reflects demand for copper imported into China, has dropped 28% over the past month to $36 a ton.
Supply worries still remain supportive of prices. Copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 4.5% year-on-year in September to 456,663 tons. Major miners have reported lower copper output in the first nine months of the year, following a series of global disruptions. Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance to between 850,000 and 875,000 tons, versus 850,000 to 890,000 tons previously. The miner’s copper production in the January to September period fell 17% to 583,500 tons from last year. Anglo American on Tuesday also reported a 9% drop in copper production in the first nine months of 2025. Elsewhere on the supply front, Freeport-McMoRan lowered its sales outlook following the pause in operations at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile continues to see production issues, while problems in the Dominican Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo added further pressure to global supply.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.6% to $3,055.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.6% to $2,880 despite an increase in LME inventories. Aluminum levels in LME registered warehouses increased by 20%, due to a 102,275-ton inflow to warehouses in Malaysia.
Tin: Tin climbed 1.3% to $36,265.
Lead: Lead eased 0.2% to $2,018.
Nickel: Nickel edged up 0.1% to $15,240.
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices rose despite a firmer dollar as gold is set for a weekly loss, although on track for its third monthly gain. On the central bank front, Fed Chair Powell warned a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, knocking market odds for another 25 bps move and lifting the 10-year Treasury above 4%. Powell said there were strongly differing views regarding how to proceed in December, and that a rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion – far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.” That caution helped offset the Fed’s rate cut and its decision to end quantitative tightening in December, both of which trim real short rates and add liquidity that normally support precious metals. President Trump and President Xi on Thursday signed a trade truce, lowering tariffs on China in exchange for purchases of US soybeans and a halt on export restrictions on rate earths.
Fresh data from the World Gold Council showed that global gold demand rose by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons, the highest quarterly number on record, in the third quarter as investment demand soared. Demand for gold bars and coins rose 17% in the third quarter, led by India and China, while inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds jumped by 134%. Central banks, another major source of gold demand, increased purchases by 10% to 219.9 tons in the third quarter. Kazakhstan was the largest buyer, while Brazil purchased gold for the first time in over four years.
Gold remains up nearly 50% year-to-date, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, robust central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, and the “debasement” trade. Continued purchasing of gold by central banks will continue to provide long-term support for the yellow metal.
Silver: Silver fell lower, breaking from moves in gold.
Platinum: Platinum fell 1.4% to $1,591.
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