Central Bank Meetings in Focus for Gold

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold: Gold prices are higher; April COMEX contracts are up 0.50% to $5,023 as multiple G10 central banks hold policy meetings this week, leading focus to signals on inflation and a prospective shift towards more hawkish policy. Energy prices continue to dictate sentiment and present material upside risks to inflation that could also hurt global economic growth. Gold continues its balancing act of safe-haven demand and bearish inflationary pressures. The Trump administration is looking to form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing US officials.

The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold while also updating its economic projections. Uncertainty surrounding the duration of the conflict in Iran and the disruption to global oil supplies is likely to keep the Fed cautious. The key question for markets will be what signals the bank sends on the prospects for further easing this year. Fed Chair Powell is expected to highlight two-sided risks to the economy, stemming from the conflict. His statement, however, is not expected to offer a clear signal about the implications on monetary policy. Money markets are pricing just one rate cut this year from the Fed.

Energy markets remain the primary driver of sentiment. The conflict in Iran presents upside risks to inflation, which has prompted fears that world central banks could turn hawkish into the year. This dynamic, alongside a rising dollar, has pressured precious metals prices in recent weeks. Other central banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet this week, with the focus on policymakers’ assessment of the Iran war on inflation, growth and future policies.

Silver: Silver futures are up 1.00% to $81.48.

Platinum: Platinum is up 2.80 % to $2,153.

BASE METALS

Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 0.77% to $12,757 as Iran stepped up attacks on US allies in the Gulf region, while energy prices remain elevated. Meanwhile, central bank decisions are in focus as inflation risks have skewed to the upside, while concerns that higher energy prices will hurt economic growth dent sentiment. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for a second straight month, warning about inflation risks from the Middle East war, while the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all expected to keep rates steady and highlight upside risks to inflation.

Strong economic data out of China has not appeared to lift prices. China’s industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in January-February and fixed asset investment rose 1.8%. Both readings beat estimates. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, jumped 2.8%, quickening from the 0.9% pace in December for their biggest gain since October last year. Analysts had expected 2.5% growth.

However, copper consumption in China has slowed. Global copper supply has risen by more than 2 million tonnes since 2022, while demand, now constrained by slowing Chinese consumption, has increased by only about 1 million tonnes. Chinese copper consumption in 2025 showed no growth, a sharp slowdown from the roughly 700,000 tonnes of annual growth seen between 2010 and 2020.

Rising copper stocks continue to provide headwinds to prices as inventories at the London Metal Exchange continue to rise alongside inventories at SHFE warehouses. The rise in SHFE warehouses has largely been reflective of subdued demand in the country. Meanwhile, COMEX inventories continue to hover above 545,000 tons. Expectations of sluggish demand have widened the discount for the LME cash copper contract over the three-month forward to above $100 a ton from nearly $20 a ton at the beginning of March.

Zinc: Zinc dropped 0.54%.

Aluminum: Aluminum is little changed at $3,394. Guinea, the world’s top bauxite producer and source of about 40% of global supply, is considering introducing export quotas for mining firms as earlier as this month, Reuters reported on Monday. Expectations of shortages continue to keep prices firm. LME aluminum stocks have fallen to their lowest since July. The war in Iran has affected deliveries from aluminum producers in the region that account for around 9% of global aluminum supply and sparked fears of disrupted imports of raw materials such as alumina to these producers via the Strait of Hormuz.

Easing some of the immediate worries, Norsk Hydro on Thursday its Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar was halting the curtailment it began last week and would maintain production at around 60% capacity with reduced gas supplies.

Tin: Tin slid 3.54%.

Lead: Lead rose 0.73%.

Nickel: Nickel lost 1.03%.

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