ADMIS News
COFFEE
December Coffee was higher overnight after the market bounced off Friday’s seven-week low yesterday. A seasonable, wetter trend for Brazil has improved the outlook for the upcoming crop, but the question remains whether it will be enough to restore production after the extended drought this year stressed trees. World Weather Service said sufficient rain is expected this week to support normal crop development. Much of Minas Gerais received light to moderate rainfall over the past 24 hours. ICE arabica stocks have reached 861,590 bags, the highest in at least seven months. There are an additional 111,444 pending grading. Local dealers in Vietnam said farmers plan to sell more then 50% of their crop if prices remain around current levels. Indonesia has received some much needed rain this week.
COCOA
March Cocoa is lower this morning but inside yesterday’s range. Ivory Coast farmers said current weather conditions would allow many beans to be harvested until January, and the crop would last even longer if plantations receive enough rain until the end of the month. There have been some concerns that recent rainfall in West Africa has hampered the harvest and spurred concerns about excess mold and moisture levels in the beans, but that information conflicts with the strong arrivals pace in Ivory Coast. World Weather Service said this week that West African rainfall will be limited to areas near to the coast, which is normal for this time of year. The dry season runs from mid-November to March. Ghana’s Cocobod said purchases have been smooth and orderly so far for 2024/25 under a new funding model that requires global traders to pay upfront for part of their bean shipments. This is in contrast to reports yesterday that farmers were holding back selling in anticipation of higher prices.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower overnight and continued to give back its gains from the brief rally on Friday. The market is back in the vicinity of last week’s lows. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the US harvest advanced swiftly last week, including especially Texas ahead of this past weekend’s rains. The report showed 63% of the US cotton crop had been harvested as of November 3, up from 52% the previous week and 55% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 58%. Texas was 58% harvested, up from 48% last week and 47% a year ago. The five-year average is 51%. West Texas looks wet for the next two weeks, with above average rainfall expected, which could slow the harvest . Export sales were decent last week, with the third straight week over 150,000 bales. But as cumulative exports were 53% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus 65% on average, which is the slowest in at least five years. USDA may eventually lower exports in their monthly supply/demand reports, but not necessarily this early in the marketing year.
SUGAR
March Sugar was lower overnight in the bottom half of yesterday’s range. The rain in Brazil has eased producers worst fears for 2025/26 production, but the wetter pattern could also curtail cane crushing activity for the balance of 2024/25. Brazilian millers said yesterday that current prices for raw sugar are not high enough to justify investment in new plants and that marginal gains in production from adjustments to existing plants are close to the limit.
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