BQC Morning Comments Sept 10.24

Geopolitics:

Both US and China have sent their troops to Brazil to participate in a joint military exercise known as “Operation Formosa”. American troops participated last year while China observed. This is the first year China is an active participant in one of South America’s largest military experiences. Nearly 3,000 military personnel have been involved from several countries including: Argentina, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, France, the Republic of Congo, and South Africa.

Macroeconomics:

The personal savings rate for Americans has fallen from over 5% to 2.9%. This is the lowest since 2008 financial crisis. Simultaneously, total credit card debt is at an all-time high of $5.093 trillion. This happens as the average interest rate on credit card account hits a new record high of 22.76%. Roger Powell still expected to cut 25 bps on September 18th, next week.

Ag Fundamentals:

The Crop progress report stated we are 5% into the 2024 corn harvest. Texas at 75%, Tennessee at 31%, Kentucky at 22%, Kansas at 14% and Missouri at 13% harvest. Illinois was pegged at 2%, but I was seeing a lot of green left out in the fields last week while i was driving around northern Illinois. Most of the country is expected to be warm and dry over then next few days.  parts of the Midwest may see some rains this weekend depending on how far up the valley Francine reaches.

Weather:

Francine may be the answer to some logistical issue on the Mississippi. Memphis gauge is currently at -7.6 feet. There have been a few closures on the river in the last few days, but boats are able to work around the low spots for now. Francine will cause the gulf to stop loading for a couple days, but it will offer the rain needed to improve river levels.