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BQC Morning Comments Oct 15.24

MORNING COMMENTS

Geopolitics:

Rumor has it Israel has assured US officials that a counterstrike on Iran would target military bases and avoid their nuclear and oil sites. The oil market reacted between 3:15 and 3:45pm on Monday, diving sharply lower. Oil prices are slipping back to $70 per barrel allowing for fears to settle across the economic spectrum. Israel may change their mind about this, but it is reassuring for the global oil supply, Iran being 3.3% of global supply. The pressure of a weaker economies around the globe decreasing the demand and price of crude oil is overpowering the worries of the Israel-Iran conflict

Macroeconomics:

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 both closed yesterday at record highs. Big bank stocks led the market higher into the weekend and tech stocks followed suite Monday morning as Wall Street enters the first week of 3rd quarter earnings season.

Ag Fundamentals:

Crop condition and harvest progress report will be released later today. Last Monday’s report had US beans at 47% harvested and 13% ahead of the 5-year average pace. Last week’s report also had corn at 30% harvested which was 3% ahead of the 5-year average pace. Many expect both corn and beans to have a 20% jump as of Sunday evening putting beans at 67-70% harvested and corn at 50-55% done. Farmers are still very undersold, estimated at 30-35% sold on beans and 25-30% on crn for the 24-25 marketing year. Now that Brazil is expecting a good amount of rain, the market will start to focus on demand in a large supply environment. China. 

Weather:

I might be the only one that still calls it a stocking cap, but i had to wear one this morning. Temps are dropping below zero in a majority of US growing regions tonight and tomorrow. Brazil’s rain forecast is adding volume daily and the bean market continues to trade lower with each update. 

Areas with Minimum Temps Below Freezing on Wednesday

US Weather Map
European Model of South America
GFS Model of South America

Export & World News

Saudi Arabia bought 360K MT of wheat from Saudi producers abroad. Jordan is still in the market for 120K MT of barley and milling wheat each.  

Malaysian palm oil futures were down 43 ringgit overnight

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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