BQC Morning Comments May 23.2025

Macroeconomics:

Equity Market futures fell this morning when President Trump put out on social media he will put a 25% tariff on Apple products made outside of the US. Recently we saw Apple shift from China to India manufacturing, but that is not good enough for Trump. He also recommended a 50% tariff on European Union products due to the trade deficit. He said these would start on June 1st. Last night the US and China held their first phone call since their meeting in Switzerland when they dropped 115% tariffs. Maintaining communication is a good sign for a imminent deal.     

Ag Fundamentals:

Grains are slumping into this Friday morning as rains covered most of the Midwest and will continue this weekend to soak the mid south and delta regions. Lower than normal temperatures in the northern growing regions are concerning those who have already planted most of their crop. Soil temps getting too low can cause issue with emergence next week. River levels are in good shape. We will have a first look at corn crop conditions on Monday’s crop progress report. I expect planting did not progress as much this last week and we’ll still have 10-15% left to plant for corn and 25% left on beans. Export sales are mixed, but mostly neutral to bullish. Corn continues to outperform on exports, but soybeans and soybean meal came in with higher than expected old crop exports. The CFTC Commitment of Traders will be out later this afternoon. Focus on if managed money has continues to widen their short position in both corn and wheat and possibly increase their soybean length.