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BQC Morning Comments For Aug 19.24

MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics: The Democratic National Convention starts today here in Chicago for the historical nomination of Kamala Harris. This comes just one month after Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and without without a primary vote to vet the top of the democratic ticket. It has been 29 days since she was announced as the nominee and has not taken any questions from the mainstream media. Maybe the American people will get their answers this week. Popular questions most are wondering this morning: Will she continue to support “Bidenomics” or shift gears with a more conservative spending approach? Is her campaign more focused on her base or will she appeal to independents? How will she fix the “boarder crisis”? Will she double down on her newest policy proposals about capping corporate price gouging? How will she handle Gaza protests? Just the tip of the iceberg of questions that the public deserves answers to. The convention will be covered by most news networks from 8pm-midnight each night Aug 19th-22nd.  In other news, Iran has reiterated their commitment to respond in force against Israel. Ears and eyes are also turned towards Russia as they have not yet responded to Ukraine’s advances across parts of the Russian boarder.

Macroeconomics: Markets are digesting last week’s PPI/CPI and jobless claims data. We are still keeping an eye on Japanese markets regarding the unraveling of the carry trade and if there is still cause for concern. This week’s Thursday report of existing home sales and Friday’s new home sales report will shed light on the US real estate market.

Ag Fundamentals: The Pro farmer Crop Tour begins today in Ohio and Nebraska. Today you will see the results from Ohio and parts of Indiana form the group staring in the east. The northwest group starts in South Dakota and works down through parts of Nebraska by this evening. You can expect those first areas to have more issues with crop conditions than the rest of the week. Ohio has concerns of drought in some areas and South Dakota and Nebraska have not had great timing on rains since the beginning of the planting season this year. Reports of crop quality will improve as they move inward toward Iowa and Illinois, but it will be interesting to see what they say bout southern Minnesota. No new news on the Canadian rail strike which is set to begin causing major issues on Thursday this week. There was not much activity on the option markets over the weekend, implying that many are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what happens in the next week or two as Delta and Mid-south harvest begins. Wheat markets on standby as more news comes out of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Weather: Parts of Indiana, southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky received the most rain over the weekend. Some light scattered showers were seen over the rest of the corn belt. This week we can expect more dryness to creep into the Midwest with little rain in the forecast.  Late season dryness can offer support to the row crop prices, but most are already counting their eggs for this harvest. Temperatures are expected to rise higher into the upper 80s and lower 90s by this coming weekend in most growing areas. No sign of tropical storms bringing moisture to the Mississippi river valley through the gulf as of right now.

farmland sunrise scene

EXPORT AND WORLD NEWSJordan issued a international tender to buy up to 120K MT of milling wheat sourced from optional origins. This morning the USDA reported 332K MT of soybeans sold to China and 110K MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, both for the 24/25 marketing year.   

Malaysian palm oil futures were up 40 ringgit overnight to 3721.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial Services, Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.

The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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