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BQC Morning Comments For Aug 12.24

MORNING COMMENTS

Macroeconomics: It will be a busy week for US economic reports.  US PPI numbers scheduled to release tomorrow morning. Wednesday we will see US CPI and EIA Energy Stocks report. Thursday is Export Sales, Jobless Claims, US/UK/China Retail Sales, and NOPA Crush reports.  Equity markets are expecting high volatility coming off an interesting trading week last week. Markets rallied from the lows after the unwinding of the Japanese yen “carry trade”, but some claiming this was a “dead cat bounce” trade and we could see further sliding depending on this week’s reports and how global markets react.

Ag Fundamentals: USDA will release today’s WASDE report at 11:00 am CST. Corn yield estimates range from 180.1 to 184.0 and soybean yields from 51.5 to 53.9. COT reports released on Friday showed some short covering in the corn by money managers, taking 52K contracts off their short. Spreads weakening further into wider carries underlines the market is over-supplied.  Farmers are selling reluctantly, and are ready to reward the next rally.  Right now we hurry up and wait for the report release later this morning.

Weather: Mostly clear skies over the weekend in the major US growing areas. Some scatters showers over western Iowa, NW Missouri and parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Soil moisture concerns are few, but northern North Dakota, southern Indiana and western Missouri are showing dry pockets. The Next 10 days offers precip to most of the Midwest. Light rains in the Delta should allow for a smooth start to their harvest – first cuts in Louisiana were Wednesday last week.  Some concerns about central Indiana south to the Ohio river being a dry spot for the next 10 days.

 

Grain silos

EXPORT & WORLD NEWS

This morning a flash sale of 165K MT of corn and 300K MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of that 300K MT of beans, 100K MT is for 23/24 marketing year – the rest is for 24/25 marketing year.  On Friday the USDA reported 132K MT of soybeans to China and 212K MT of soybeans to unknown destination and 100K MT of Soybean cake and meal to Columbia

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial Services, Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.

The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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