BQC Morning Comments Aug 22.24

Macroeconomics:

More than 9000 employees were locked out after a deal between the two largest Canadian railways and the Teamsters Union could not come to a deal by 12:01 am this morning. Both Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd account for 80% of Canada’s network. Good luck getting your Amazon packages this week. The event will cause +$300 million dollars in losses for every day they are shut down. Some of the top commodities at risk are: iron, coal, wheat, and potash.

Ag Fundamentals:

Pro Farmer is estimating a record corn yield in Illinois. 204.2 bushels per acre is a monster estimate from the Pro Farmer, and it is the largest estimate for Illinois in the 32 years they have conducted the tour. The three-year average for Illinois is 193.58 bpa. The soybean pod counts for IL were up 11% from last years PFCT estimate,at 1419.11 per 3×3 ft plot. Northwest Iowa had some heavy rains during the spring and experienced some hail and high winds during the early summer months this year. Northwest Iowa’s corn yield estimate came in at 176.59 bpa, which is lower than the three year average by 6 bpa. Between Iowa’s west-central and and southwestern regions, the tour saw yields of 191.6-195.9. Those areas were well above the three year average of 183.7. Soybean pod counts in all three districts ranged from 1108-1366 per 3×3 foot plot. We will see the whole state of Iowa’s estimate for the tour come out today.

Weather:

The soil moisture map has gotten worse over the last 3 days in parts of Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky. These are crucial areas that contribute to the Mississippi river system. It has been very hot and dry in the last 15 days in Texas and parts of the south. I do not see much relief for this area in the next couple weeks. Peak hurricane season is about 20 days away, around September 15th, and the window closes half way through November.