Written Commentary
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report |
80% Chance of a Hurricane Forming. There is a small chance the storm developing over the Atlantic reaches the the Gulf, but it will most likely miss major crop zones.
US Corn Crop Conditions (67%)
US Corn Crop Conditions fall -1% last week. This is an expected move lower for this time of year. Disease is gaining status within conversation, but hard to say if that is a strong leg to stand on. Many have ruled out 187+ bpa but the floor set by the pro farmer crop tour at 182.7 bpa. This puts the range of production at 16.2 billion – 16.9 billion.
US Corn Harvest Progress (7%)
Corn Harvest is on the 5-year pace at 7% shelled. Tennessee is 25% ahead of pace at 48% harvested vs. the 23% 5-year average.
US Soybeans Crop Conditions (63%)
Soybean Crop Conditions fell -1% last week to 63% good/excellent. Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, North Dakota and Michigan took their conditions down 4-5% mostly due to continued dryness.
Winter Wheat Planting Progress (11%)
Winter Wheat Planting is -2% behind schedule. Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas are the main states dragging their feet. It is still very early to be concerned.
Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry
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Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.35 (expanded $0.55); Soybeans $0.75 (expanded $1.15); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
Symbol | Close | Chg | High | Low | Support | Resist | 20-Day | 50-Day |
CZ25 | 423 1/4 | -6 3/4 | 428 1/2 | 422 | 415 | 430 | 415 1/4 | 413 1/2 |
CH26 | 441 | -6 1/4 | 445 1/2 | 439 3/4 | 430 | 450 | 432 3/4 | 431 |
CK26 | 451 1/4 | -5 3/4 | 455 | 449 3/4 | 440 | 460 | 443 | 441 1/4 |
SX25 | 1042 3/4 | -3 1/2 | 1051 1/4 | 1039 3/4 | 1020 | 1070 | 1040 3/4 | 1024 |
SF26 | 1061 3/4 | -3 1/2 | 1070 | 1058 3/4 | 1030 | 1080 | 1059 3/4 | 1042 1/4 |
SN26 | 1099 1/2 | -3 1/2 | 1106 1/4 | 1096 1/2 | 1110 | 1050 | 1096 1/2 | 1079 1/2 |
MWZ25 | 571 3/4 | 0 | 576 1/4 | 568 3/4 | 570 | 598 | 578 3/4 | 598 |
MWH26 | 592 1/2 | +1 1/4 | 596 3/4 | 586 | 585 | 610 | 598 3/4 | 618 1/2 |
WZ25 | 525 | +1 1/2 | 529 1/4 | 520 1/4 | 515 | 540 | 524 3/4 | 540 |
WH26 | 542 3/4 | +1 3/4 | 546 1/4 | 537 3/4 | 525 | 555 | 542 1/4 | 558 |
KWZ25 | 514 | – 3/4 | 520 1/4 | 511 | 500 | 550 | 515 1/2 | 531 1/2 |
KWH26 | 534 3/4 | – 1/4 | 540 1/2 | 531 3/4 | 520 | 565 | 535 3/4 | 551 1/2 |
SMV25 | 285.2 | -2.40 | 287.5 | 283.9 | 275.00 | 290.00 | 285.10 | 280.90 |
BOV25 | 51.76 | +0.09 | 52.44 | 51.35 | 50.00 | 55.00 | 52.02 | 53.39 |
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