Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky was flown here this week on a government plane to Pennsylvania which is a key battleground state in the up-coming presidential election. Zelensky toured ammunition factories alongside Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Gov. Shapiro was one of the top contenders for Kamala Harris’s choice to be Vice President and is viewed signing bombs alongside Zelensky intended to be dropped on Russian forces. The video is circling the internet, and whether you support the war or not, it seems a bit disturbing to publicly sign bombs and smile about it. During his visit Zelensky is also providing media with comments targeting the Trump/Vance ticket. As far as the other war, the Us sent an additional 40,000 US troops to the northern boarder of Israel. The death toll in Lebanon continues to rise today as the consequences of the conflict are realized, now nearly 500 dead and 1600 injured. Now Israeli President Isaac Herzog is denying connections with last week’s pager attack in Lebanon where 25 people were killed and 600 injured.
Macroeconomics:
Gold continues it’s historic rise. Now up 28% year to date to 2,652.6 per ounce. Gold is at all time highs and with global economic and political uncertainty in addition to US Fed cutting rates, many believe the run up is far from over.
Ag Fundamentals:
The NASS crop progress report is showing corn and beans unchanged from last week’s good/excellent remaining at 65% for corn and 64% for beans. Week-over-week changes in crop conditions as well as corn and bean harvest progress can be seen in the images below.
NASS Crop Conditions Ratings
Corn Crop Conditions are unchanged from last week at 65% good/excellent rating. There was a shift 1 point from excellent to good. Conditions dropped in 12 of the 18 states since last week’s report.
Soybean Crop Conditions held their ground at 64% good/excellent. Average yield estimates are pegged at 53.5 bu/acre. Soybean rating increased by +7% in South Dakota since last week while the eastern states suffered the most loss week-over-week.
Harvest Progress
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Calendar Spreads
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CZ24/CH25 | -18 1/4 | 0 | -30 1/4 | 60% |
SX24/SF25 | -17 1/2 | 0 | -26 1/2 | 66% |
SX24/SN25 | -53 1/4 | +3 | -105 1/4 | 51% |
MWZ24/MWH25 | -21 1/2 | +1/4 | -30 | 72% |
WZ24/WH25 | -18 3/4 | +1/4 | -23 3/4 | 79% |
KWZ24/KWH25 | -13 1/2 | 0 | -23 1/2 | 57% |
Cost of Carry
Dryness in Brazil still remains at the top of the list of things to watch while considering bean spread positions. The SX4/SN5 Nov/July firmed 3 cents today with the lack of rain in the nearby forecast in Brazil’s major growing areas.
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