Written Commentary
Ag Fundamentals:
Export inspections were mixed in this morning’s USDA inspection report. Corn was in line at 63M bushels, with Mexico (19M) and Japan (17M) the two largest buyers. Soybean inspections were toward the bottom of the estimate range at 12M bushels. The two largest soybean buyers were Mexico (3M) and China (2.5M). Wheat export inspections were below expectations at 11M bushels. November Soybeans found support today at both the 20 and 50-day moving averages, hitting a low of 1020’0 to close at 1022’2. Money managers did increase their soybean position over 7K contracts last week. Soybean planting progress is well above the 5-year pace, at 30% today vs. 23% avg. Corn is also slightly ahead of pace now over 40% planted across the US. Winter Wheat conditions improved from 49% good-excellent last week to 51% g/e this week. Comparison maps can be seen below.
November Soybeans hit a low of 1020’0 today and closed above a confirmed golden cross. The 20-day moving average crossed to close above the 50-day moving average for the first time since mid January.
Winter Wheat Good-Excellent Crop Ratings
Winter Wheat Good to Excellent ratings rose to 51% this week, compared to last week at 49%. South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Illinois had some of the best improvements while Arkansas, Indiana, and Idaho saw some of the worse declines week-over-week. The wheat belt from Texas north to South Dakota still has below average conditions.
Corn Planting Progress 40%
Corn Planting Progress is +1% ahead of the 5-year average pace. Today the USDA estimates 40% of US corn is in the ground. Illinois and Kentucky are the obvious laggers compared to the average pace, both -12% behind. The clear weather this week should allow for producers to catch up in the center of the Midwest. The US was able to advance corn harvest +16% over the last week.
Soybean Planting Progress: 30%
Soybean Planting Progress is +7% ahead of the 5-year average pace at 30%. Every state is ahead of pace expect Illinois. That should change this week following a the 5 days or more of clear weather. The US advanced soybean planting +12% in the last week.
Calender Spreads and Cost of Carry
Spread | Last | Chg | Full | % of FC |
CN25/CU25 | 21 1/2 | -7 1/2 |
|
|
CU25/CZ25 | -10 1/4 | 0 | -31 | 33% |
SN25/SQ25 | 5 1/4 | -1 1/2 |
|
|
SQ25/SX25 | 18 | -2 3/4 |
|
|
SN25/SX25 | 23 1/4 | -4 1/4 |
|
|
MWN25/MWU25 | -11 1/4 | +1/4 | -20 3/4 | 54% |
WN25/WU25 | -14 1/2 | – 3/4 | -16 | 91% |
KWN25/KWU25 | -14 1/2 | – 1/4 | -16 | 91% |
|
Futures Settlements & Technicals
|
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
