BQC Afternoon Comments Mar 31.2025

Macroeconomics: The JOLTS job openings report and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be out at 9:00am tomorrow morning, Wednesday is “Liberation Day”, and Friday offers more job data with unemployment and wage change out at 7:30 am CST.
Ag Fundamentals: The USDA records the second lowest All Wheat acres number on record at 45.35 million. Winter wheat acres, at 33.315 million acres was over 575K acres less than the average estimate. Wheat stocks were about 16 million bushels more than the average estimate. Corn acres, at 95.326 million, were over 900K acres above the average estimate. This would be the highest number of corn acres planted since 2013. Corn prices really did not react to the higher acres, meaning most participating in today’s corn market was expecting acres to be north of 95 million. Soybeans similarly saw a slightly bullish acres estimate, -300K acres less than the average estimate, and price action reacted the opposite on the board. Soybean stocks were very close to the average estimate and only 65 million bushels more than this time last year. Export inspections came out just before this morning’s USDA PP and Quarterly stocks report. Corn inspections were above expectations at 63.5 million bushels, soybeans were also above expectations at 29 million bushels, and wheat were in line at 16 million. Mexico and Japan continue to be the largest corn buyers from the US and China took 23 million of the 29 million bushels of soybeans.  
Weather: There are flash flood warnings Wednesday through Saturday this week in northern AR, the MO bootheel, and parts of southern IL and western KY. Looking at the water level forecast in Cairo, IL on the Ohio River, the experimental forecast suggests they will spend most of April in a flood stage.