BQC Afternoon Comments Aug 21.24

Macroeconomics:

US job growth has been overestimated this year and the downward revision to the actual truth may be the largest seen in 15 years. JP Morgan estimates the revision is 360K jobs and it ranges as high as Goldman Sachs estimate of -1 million less jobs than originally reported by our government. Additionally, Kamala Harris has recently endorsed the tax policies put forward in the last budget proposal by Joe Biden. Within that proposal is a 28% corporate tax, a 44.6% capital gains tax, and a 25% unrealized capital gains tax.

Ag Fundamentals:

Today’s results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in parts of Iowa and Illinois will be posted tonight by 8pm. Reading through some of the Pro Farmer posts found on X.com, and I am seeing yields as high as 210 bpa average in Illinois, many averaging between 195 and 210 bpa. I have seen some mixed reviews in Iowa due to areas that were effected by early and mid-season weather, but overall similar to Illinois numbers. Pod counts in both states range from 700 to 2500 in a 3×3 plot. Soybean prices are higher on the news of another flash sale to china this morning and mixed pod counts coming from the tour.

Weather:

Spotty and light showers across southern North Dakota and central South Dakota today. Southern Illinois and SEMO are seeing small pop-up sprinkles as well. Otherwise, the US production areas are dry. Expected to remain that way for the most part through next week.  Might see a random storm in Iowa and light showers in the north between now and September, but mostly dry. No tropical storm threats for the next 10 days so we can expect the lower Mississippi river levels to continue lower. Currently Memphis river gauge is at -2.23 ft and will reach -5 ft by the first week of September.