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BQC Afternoon Comments April 21.2025

Geopolitics: China warns global trade partners of countermeasures against them if they were to appease US on trade policy at the expense of China’s interests. Last week China’s leader Xi Jinping went on a tour of south Asian countries Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Xi was reported telling all three nation leaders to stand up to “unilateral bullying” and stressed the importance of their strength against US tariff threats. Xi signed several bilateral cooperation agreements and agreed to uphold free and open trade with the three countries. Russia ends the Easter 30-hour cease-fire. Ukraine has offered a 30-day extension to the Easter ceasefire, but fighting on the front lines resumed this morning while the Kremlin officials review the proposal. On Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US may stop mediating an end to the war in Ukraine if no peace deal is reached in the matter of days. That seems to put more pressure on Ukraine to lower their standards of the deal rather than Russia. If the US steps aside and Russia advances, Ukraine may be forced to hold worse cards considering other European countries do not have the funds to keep Zelensky’s efforts going. President Trump said this morning that the US may meet with Ukraine/Europe on Wednesday to make another effort to reach peace. 

Macroeconomics: The US dollar fell to a 3 year low this morning. In a statement on Truth Social, President Trump opposes the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone regarding the need to wait and see how the new tariff policies effect the US economy. On Friday last week, the White House advisor team was mulling over options to either force Jerome’s hand or fire him from the position. This has caused uncertainty among investors and lowered the confidence of the current global monetary system. Most of the selling in US equity markets has been foreign investors walking back their positions in the United States and focusing their attention on safe haven assets. Gold hitting a record high above $3400 per ounce today. 

Ag Fundamentals: This morning’s export inspections were above expectations for corn and wheat while beans fell in line with estimates. Corn inspections were reported at 67 million bushels (largest corn buyers were Mexico 19 M, Japan 17M, and South Korea 8M), wheat at 19 million bushels and soybeans at 20 million bushels(largest soybean buyer was Egypt at 6.4M bu). US winter wheat crop conditions dropped -2% week-over-week to 45% good/excellent. This time last year winter wheat was 55% good/excellent. There is still plenty of time for the wheat crop conditions to improve. The USDA reported soybean planting progress at 8% nationally which is 3% ahead of the 5-year pace. US corn planting progress was pegged at 12% which is 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Kentucky is the furthest behind today, but with a few stretches of cooperative weather, they should have no issue catching up.

NASS Crop Condition Ratings

US Winter Wheat is 45% Good/Excellent vs. 55% Last Year. (nationally down -2% G/E from last week) Illinois winter wheat crop conditions suffered the worst decline week-over-week with a change of -11% good/excellent. Oklahoma and South Dakota both lower as well. 

Planting Progress

US Soybeans are 8% Planted vs.the 5-year average of 5%.

Soybean Planting vs. Pace shows Ohio and Kentucky behind pace, but overall ahead of schedule.

US Corn is 12% Planted vs. the a 5-year average of 10%.

Corn Planting vs. Pace
Illinois, Iowa and south are behind pace planing corn this year due to heavy rains.

Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry

Spread

Last

Chg

Full

% of FC

CK25/CN25

-8 1/4

– 1/4

-21 1/4

39%

CN25/CU25

33 1/4

+1 1/2

 

 

SK25/SN25

-12   

– 3/4

-27   

44%

SN25/SQ25

3 3/4

 +3/4

 

 

SN25/SX25

15 3/4

 +1/2

 

 

MWK25/MWN25

-14   

-1   

-20 1/2

68%

WK25/WN25

-13 3/4

– 1/4

-15 3/4

87%

KWK25/KWN25

-13   

– 1/2

-16   

81%

Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.70 (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)

Corn May-July 25 Spread Chart

Soybeans May-July 25 Spread Chart

Minneapolis Wheat May-July 25 Spread Chart

Chi Wheat May-July 25 Spread Chart

KC Wheat May-July 25 Spread Chart

Futures Settlements & Technicals

Symbol

Close

Chg

High

Low

Support

Resist

20-Day

50-Day

CK25

481 3/4

– 1/2

487 1/4

481 1/4

465   

490   

468 1/4

476   

CN25

490   

– 1/4

495   

489 1/2

475   

500   

475 1/2

482 1/2

SK25

1029 1/2

-7   

1043 3/4

1029   

1026   

1050   

1018   

1026 1/4

SN25

1041 1/2

-6 1/4

1054 3/4

1040 3/4

1030   

1050   

1030 1/2

1039 3/4

SQ25

1037 3/4

-7   

1051 1/4

1037   

1035   

1050   

1026 1/4

1036 1/2

MWK25

600   

-6 1/4

608 3/4

596 1/2

600   

620   

596 1/4

608 1/2

MWN25

614   

-5 1/4

622 3/4

611   

611   

630   

611   

622 1/2

WK25

538 1/2

-10 1/4

552 3/4

537 1/4

535   

563   

540 1/4

560 1/2

WN25

552 1/4

-10   

566 1/2

551 1/4

552   

580   

554 1/2

574 1/2

KWK25

550 3/4

-6 3/4

562   

549 3/4

550   

570   

561 3/4

581 1/4

KWN25

563 3/4

-6 1/4

575   

562 3/4

560   

585   

575 1/4

594   

SMK25

292.9

-2.70

297.9

292.6

290.00

300.90

293.30

298.70

BOK25

47.82

-0.05

48.28

47.47

45.00

48.25

45.85

44.98

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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©2025 Archer Financial Services

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but merely a collection of information related to and commodities trading provided by Archer Financial Services, Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such element, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.

The risk of loss in trading futures and options on futures can be substantial. Each investor must carefully consider whether this type of investment is appropriate for them. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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