Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
CATTLE COMPLEX
Fundamentally, beef prices are close to 15% higher in 2025, feeder cattle slaughter is down over 7% year to date, beef imports up to august were up 37% but imports have been dropping since August because of tariffs. There is the possibility beef imports may increase from Argentina, but it will be limited. Argentina has also increased sales to China and middle eastern countries. Unless there is a change in the Mexican cattle quarantine, the cattle numbers in the southwest will remain down into 2026. To put more icing on the cake, Cattle on Feed reports indicate fewer cattle into 2026.
PORK COMPLEX
Lean hog trade volume was light Friday. For the week futures were lower following cash pork and cash hogs down. With October off the board, December is the lead month. The difference between the CME Lean Hog Index and December futures has futures $14.22 lower. But there is close to 2 months before December expires.
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