Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is unch. CN is unch. WN is unch. KWN is up. MWN is up. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $80 on talk of OPEC cuts and hope for increase demand.
SN is near 12.28. SN-SU spread dropped 6 cents to +17. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil futures were higher, China soybean crush margins are negative. This and lower domestic soymeal basis could lower soybean import demand. Season to date US exports are down 17 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 14 pct drop. US soybean plantings are 68 pct vs 63 average. Bears feel low US new crop export sales and plantings ahead of average adds up to lower prices.
CN is near 4.62. Dalian corn futures were sharply lower after China approved 2 GMO Argentina corn varieties for import. Despite talk of lower Ukraine and SA crops, increase Argentina exports to China could lower China demand for US corn. Season to date US exports are up 26 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 29 pct increase. US corn plantings are 83 pct vs 82 average. Bears feel plantings ahead of average and crop ratings above average adds up to lower prices.
WN is near 6.99. KWN is near 7.27. MWN is near 7.58. Approaching US winter wheat harvest offers resistance. US HRW could see showers which are not welcomed. USDA dropped US WW crop ratings 1 pct to 48. 88 pct of US spring wheat is planted. Season to date US wheat export are 672 mil bu vs USDA 720 est. Lower Black Sea and EU crops offset by higher US supply vs ly and slow global export demand. Russia weather next week will be hot and dry. Some techies feel wheat futures are near seasonal top.
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