Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher near $73. Energies supported by China optimism and cold US weather. Some techies are negative Crude. Gold is higher. Fed Vice Chair in charge of regulations resigned to avoid conflict with Trump.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.89. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were lower. N and C Brazil weather remains favorable for crops. Argentina weather is dry and warmer. Soybean exports are up 23 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. US crush should stay high which could add to soymeal supplies. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand. Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US soybean stocks are est at 3,231 mil bu vs 3,000 ly. US 2024 crop is est near 4,453 mil bu. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 457 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 470. Trade est Brazil soybean crop at 170.3 vs USDA 169.0 and Argentina 51.9 vs USDA 52.0.
CORN
CH is near 4.55. Argentina 10 day forecast remains dry. US exports are up 24 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Market will begin to position for USDA January reports of supply and demand Dec 1 stocks and final US 2024 crop sizes. Dec 1 US corn stocks are est at 12,147 mil bu vs 12,171 ly. US 2024 crop should be near USDA 15,095. US 2024/25 carryout could drop to 1,675 mil bu vs USDA Dec est of 1,738. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 127.0 vs USDA 127.0 and Argentina 50.5 vs USDA 51.0. CH resistance is near 4.60.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.39. KWH is near 5.54. MWH is near 5.93. US wheat exports are up 25 pct vs USDA up 20. KS crop rating dropped to 47 pct G/E vs 55 in Nov and 43 ly. . Dec 1 US wheat stocks are est at 1,565 mil bu vs 1,421 ly. US 2024/25 carryout should remain at 799 mil bu. 2025 Winter wheat seedings are est at 33,3 mil acres vs 33.4 ly. HRW 23.7 vs 23.7 ly. SRW 6.1 vs 6.0 ly. White winter 3.5 vs 3.5 ly.
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