Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Major stock index futures are higher.
Durable goods orders in February were up 1.4% when a gain of 1.3% was expected.
The 9:00 central time January consumer confidence index is anticipated to be 106.7.
The March Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be released at 9:00. In February the index was -5.0.
On Friday traders will be scrutinizing comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell for further clues on the central bank’s next policy steps.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while the technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower, although there was some support from the slightly stronger than predicted durable goods orders report.
German consumer sentiment is expected to stay on its path of a slow recovery in April. The consumer sentiment index published jointly by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions increased slightly heading into April to -27.4 from a revised -28.8 in March, and surpassing a forecast of -27.8.
The Japanese yen steadied near 151.4 per U.S. dollar, after the currency’s weakness prompted verbal intervention from monetary authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he would not rule out any measures to rein in weakness in the yen. Yesterday the country’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said the yen’s weakness did not reflect fundamentals and described recent moves as speculative. He added he is closely watching currency moves with a sense of urgency and warned that he stands ready to respond appropriately.
Australian consumer sentiment weakened in March.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declined 1.8% in March to 84.4 points, which compares to an increase of 6.2% in the prior month.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook recently said the Fed needs to proceed carefully as it decides when to begin cutting interest rates. On Friday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he expects only a single quarter-point interest rate cut instead of the two he had projected previously.
The Treasury will auction five-year notes today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is an 8.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the May 1 policy meeting, and there is a 92.0% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
