Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Fed Day. Grains are quietly mixed. US Midwest turns drier from tomorrow with generally below normal temps, before turning warmer in 8-14 day. Supply driven bear market continues. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Most feel while Fed is divided but may not be ready to cut rates yet. Procter & Gamble, long a bellwether for the health of the U.S. consumer economy, says American shoppers are slowing down. Tsunami warning in Pacific after massive earthquake off east Russia Kamchatka peninsula.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.90. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. Same song, same dance. Soybean futures trading oversized US 2025 soybean crop relative to export demand. Soyoil demand is rising and inelastic. Soyoil board oil share near 52 pct and peak in 2022 which was highest since 1980’s. Soymeal supply chain running out of animals to feed and places to store. Brazil soybean export basis firm. China is covered for Aug-Sep, mostly from Brazil. No deal between US and China.
CORN
CU is near 3.89. CU-CZ spread widened to -21 ¾. Dalian corn futures were lower and back to Jan,2025 lows. Like soybeans, corn is optimistic about size of US 2025 corn crop, Nearby cash is firm on slow farmer selling. Banker may soon step in and force farmers to sell something. Deferred basis is weaker. Brazil corn export basis is firm due to increase domestic demand. North Brazil basis is firm to EU buyers. South Brazil ports losing Asia demand to US PNW.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.28. KWU is near 5.18. MWU is near 5.78. MWU are new lows. Higher USD and weak global July wheat exports pressured wheat futures. All 3 classes are at or near contract lows. Argentina futures and export prices are lower. Australia rains have improved crop outlook. Sep is key month for Australia wheat production. Black Sea prices firm despite lack of export buying, Black Sea farmer still not selling and adding to storage capacity which is upsetting normal grain movement.
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